Dearborn, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

430
FXUS63 KDTX 110849
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
449 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry cold front moves through today, holding temperatures in the
upper 40s across the north while climbing into the mid 50s to near
60 south.

- Coolest conditions noted Wednesday as easterly winds keep highs in
the 40s. Potential for temperatures to hold in the 30s immediately
downwind of the lakes.

- Another warming trend emerges late this week bringing temperatures
well above average both Thursday and Friday.

- A strong low pressure lifting across the midwest will bring the
next chance of showers early Saturday morning. This system will also
lead to gusty winds on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Passage of a dry cold front will veer wind direction from southwest
to northwest this morning and afternoon. A lake response with the
cooler air behind the front may invigorate a brief period of stratus
or strato-cu with ceilings around 3kft, but confidence in this
materialization holding up across southeast Michigan is low given
the dry air in place. Otherwise, wind gust potential to or slightly
above 20 knots will be possible along and behind the cold front for
several hours.

For DTW... A wind shift from southwest (240 degrees) to northwest
(330 degrees)remains on schedule for the 13-15z morning timeframe as
a cold front tracks through the airspace.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft early this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

DISCUSSION...

Extended stretch of benign weather conditions to continue through
the remainder of the work week. Brief dip in the upper height field
as a mid level wave glances across the northern great lakes will
drive a cold front across southeast Michigan during the late morning
period. Very mild pre-frontal environment now entrenched locally, as
temperatures hover predominately in the 40s. Window for greater
diurnal temperature recovery set for southern areas given the later
frontal timing, effectively establishing a broader distribution in
temperatures from north to south. Daytime temperatures peaking in
the mid/upper 40s north to near 60 degrees along the Ohio border,
with limited late day recovery as ensuing cold air advection takes
greater hold in northwest flow. A dearth in moisture quality as noted
by lack of cloud upstream ensures a dry frontal passage. Model
guidance maintains more muted post-frontal wind magnitude, leaving
any gusts capped below 30 mph.

High pressure governs conditions tonight and Wednesday. Inbound
airmass characterized as relatively seasonable for mid March,
lending to a brief road block in this warmer pattern. The cooler
conditions on Wednesday solidified by prevailing low level easterly
flow and at least some potential for lower cloud development as an
elevated warm frontal boundary lifts back into the region. This will
hold temperatures in the 40s, potentially holding in the 30s near
the lakeshore given onshore flow. Greater insolation potential
within the background of improving mean thickness levels as heights
gradually build will again establish a much warmer thermal profile
Thursday. Ongoing warming trend fortified by increase in depth and
magnitude to southerly flow as higher amplitude upper ridge arrives
Friday. The advective process will effectively shift highs well into
the 60s to end the week.

Dynamic mid level wave set to strengthen late this week as it moves
into the southern plains, before ejecting north-northeast throughout
the weekend. Impressive increase in deep layer southerly flow along
the eastern flank of the main height fall center as it takes a
negative tilt will direct an elongated axis of deeper moisture
transport into the region late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Conflicting information at this stage as to the possible scale of
corresponding shower production within this window. High likelihood
for a quick hitting opportunity /less than 6 hour duration/ given
the underlying momentum. Latest NBM output continues to highlight a
60-70% probability. Southeast Michigan maintains position well
within the warm sector throughout Saturday - shot to exceed 70
degrees depending on cloud and any secondary late day shower
coverage. Gusty conditions expected Saturday given presence of a
high magnitude wind field. Efficiency of mixing as overall depth
battles inherant stability issues found in waa patterns will
ultimately dictate peak gust potential. A late day convective
response likely along the pre-frontal trough across the Ohio valley
where supportive instability is more certain, but potential does
exist with northward extent into portions of the area. Trending
colder Sunday and Monday as the broadening mid level troughing
migrates through the region.

MARINE...

A low pressure system tracks across northern Lake Superior and into
central Ontario today which strengthens the pressure gradient across
the central waterways. This also maintains stronger winds/waves for
Outer Saginaw Bay and the tip of The Thumb. The Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect until 10 PM tonight for occasional waves up to 7
ft. The passing low offers potential for gusts to around 30 knots
during the daylight hours, mainly for northern Lake Huron,
along/behind the system`s cold front. This frontal passage veers
winds toward the NNW for the southern waters by this afternoon and
early evening. The rest of the southern Lake Huron nearshores were
added to the Small Craft Advisory to account for stronger north (and
shore-parallel) flow in the system`s wake that should drive up wave
heights. High pressure then builds into the region overnight and
Wednesday offering notably weaker easterly flow through Thursday. A
strong low (28.80 inches) has the potential to track across the
Great Lakes this weekend presenting opportunities for gale-force
winds/gusts, although a high degree of uncertainty exists within the
Days 5-7 time-frame.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......KGK


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.